Despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the looming fall season, a new report from real estate technology company MoxiWorks suggests home sales will remain strong for the next month and a half.
The report says that as of September of this year, 564,000 homes are expected to sell in the United States. This would represent a 5% drop from 594,000 sales in August, but that drop would be significantly lower than the historic average drop of 14% from August to September. In other words, if MoxiWorks’ predictions come true, September is expected to be considerably better than average when it comes to home sales.
The report also says that in October, the United States is expected to record 569,000 home sales, a very small increase from the September forecast.
The report further predicts that for the full year 2021, the United States is expected to record a total of 6.8 million home sales. This would almost equate to “the historic peak of 7 million home sales in 2005,” the report adds.
MoxiWorks – which offers a variety of real estate technologies, including CRM and marketing tools – compiled the report by examining the ad and sales data it gets from users and several ad services. . Company CEO York Baur told Inman that data represents 97% of the home sales footprint in the United States.
MoxiWorks’ earlier market forecast for August was ultimately less than 1% of what actually happened.
Baur ultimately attributed the strong fall sales forecast to several factors. First, he said the ongoing pandemic continues to push people to new homes and areas as they seek better housing and work from home options.
Second, Baur pointed out the interest rates.
âThis is a huge factor in the conduct of home transactions and it continues to be at an all-time low,â he explained.
And third, Baur noted that government mortgage forbearance programs were ending, which “will likely bring more inventory into the market.” He went on to explain that unlike the Great Recession, most homeowners today have significant equity in their homes, which means they’re more likely to sell than default. And that, in turn, means there could be a further injection of stocks into the market sooner than it could in a foreclosure crisis.
âThese homes will in theory come on the market and be sold this year,â Baur added.
Baur said the forbearance problem is a short-term trend, although low interest rates and the pandemic-induced move to new locations may be “more sustainable.”
Regardless, Baur presented the uniqueness of this year’s market as an opportunity for agents.
“I think that given the originality of this market, it is all the more important for agents to stay in contact with the people they know,” he noted. âThe agent is a trusted advisor and people need a lot of advice right now. This is a perfect opportunity for an agent to demonstrate his worth.
Email Jim Dalrymple II